How artificial intelligence is quietly reshaping the job market

The divergence in demand

The European Central Bank calculates that employment in jobs with a high risk of artificial intelligence substitution declined on average by more than 4 percent between 2019 and 2025. Over the same period, the institution observes that employment in low-risk occupations increased by 13 percent. This divergence indicates a reallocation of human capital across the economy rather than a sudden wave of technological unemployment.

The demographic impact of this reallocation is uneven. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab measures that for workers aged 22 to 25, employment in AI-exposed occupations is contracting at 3.8 percent per year. This mechanical shrinkage of the entry-level cohort reflects a broader freeze in recruitment for knowledge work. Revelio Labs records that the share of job postings with high AI exposure has declined by approximately 5 percentage points since late 2022.

Source institutions：European Central Bank

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